ABAG: 63K more Solano-bound

ABAG: 63K more Solano-bound
By Tony Burchyns/ Times-Herald, Vallejo
Posted: 09/01/2009

Solano County may need to build more than 23,000 homes during the next 25 years for an additional 63,000 residents mostly in Vallejo, Vacaville and Fairfield, a regional agency has forecast.

The numbers are from a population prediction that says the Bay Area will need to find room for 1.7 million more residents by 2035.

As more people enter the region, opportunities are dwindling to effectively plan for the growth in a way that reduces traffic, energy costs and environmental damage, said planners with the Association of Bay Area Governments.

"It's rethinking how we travel, rethinking how we live," planner Christy Riviere said. "It's a whole slew of things we have to consider."

Almost 75 percent of the growth is expected to occur in the urban perimeter circling the bay from Richmond to San Francisco.

But Solano County's three largest cities are also expected to grow. Vallejo and Fairfield each will see an estimated 15,000 more people by 2035, followed by Vacaville with about 11,000.

The planners forecast that Solano County will grow by about 14 percent -- about half the rate expected of Santa Clara County, the region's most populous county.

Planners presented their figures to more than 100 local leaders and others Friday in downtown Oakland. The association releases its projections every two years.

Along with more people, Solano County is expected to add more than 70,000 jobs, mostly in health and education services, retail and manufacturing. Most of the jobs would be in Fairfield, Riviere said.

Buoyed by a strong industrial sector, Benicia is expected to add more than 5,000 jobs. But that city, nearing its maximum capacity, is only expected to add 2,000 people for a total of about 30,000.

Issues surrounding the Bay Area's population boom include whether the region's roads and transit systems are equipped to handle the growth.

Regional planners already are pushing for denser growth near transit centers, such as Vallejo's ferry terminal.

Vallejo has targeted its waterfront, downtown and Mare Island as major areas to build more homes.

"In terms of attempting to develop new housing at higher density ... close to transit ... that is something the city has embraced," assistant city manager Craig Whittom said. "I think density is a challenge and an issue that different communities have difference approaches to."

Regional planners pushing for denser growth say they've drawn resistance from some Bay Area local leaders who have a different vision for their communities.

Benicia Mayor Elizabeth Patterson said there could be resistance from Solano County leaders who don't want to abandon the suburban ideals of the past.

"There is no question in my mind there is a huge fear of trying to go in a different direction in terms of land use," Patterson said. "But if you want to maintain amenities like agriculture and open space, there's no question ... it's a balancing act."

Despite Solano County's population projections, traffic congestion is not expected to increase. However, things won't improve either, with the average commuter still expected to spend about 26 hours a year stuck in traffic, Riviere said.

MediaNews Group staff writer Matt O'Brien contributed to this article.